In behavioral economics, there is a theory called the "Sunk Cost Fallacy." Briefly stated, it says that "individuals commit the sunk cost fallacy when they continue a behavior or endeavor as a result of previously invested resources (time, money or effort)" (Arkes & Blumer, 1985). And don't feel bad, we all fall into this way of thinking. We’re wired to believe that the time or money we already have invested into something should be factored into our current decision making. This is flawed logic.

The Sunk Cost Fallacy is one of my main takeaways from business school. It seems that every class we took covered the concept and put it deep into our brains. There is a time when you simply have to ask, "are we going to keep investing in something even though we know the outcome will not be what we want simply because we already have put money into it?" You may have heard of it by its less academic term, "throwing good money after bad."

Of course, the concept of the sunk cost is not just for business. I have seen it violated in the arts, the non-profit sector and, of course, in the church. After all, in the church, we *really* value tradition. And tradition is one of the easiest ways to stop looking at whether something works/is worth doing/we even like doing it. We just do it because, say it with me, "we always have."

This is on my mind these days because when experimenting, it is especially important to know when to pull the plug on something. In one experiment in particular, we have reached that point. 

You might recall we announced an experiment called "Drunk Bible" based on the hit Comedy Central show, "Drunk History." After hearing back from many of you, we decided that this was not something we wanted to do. And so we pivoted, and we created "Street Bible." Along the way, we lost sight of who we wanted as our audience and, I feel, the end product shows. (You can see the unpublished videos on my own YouTube page. There's the one about Adam and Eve and the one about Noah. Tell me what you think.)

We could try to market it via Facebook ads and see if it'll be a "thing" with any group. Maybe kids will like it? Maybe the unchurched will like it? My early testing shows that there's really no "there" there. And so we get to the question: do we keep investing in this because we've already invested time and money into it, or do we call it a day? 

If I thought that if we got this right it would move the needle and more people would find their way to God and life as a follower of Christ, maybe. But we have other experiments that have a greater chance and are more focused. And so, another one is done. And it goes in the "didn't work" category. That's ok. It's why we call it experimenting. ​

A new year is always an excellent opportunity to refocus. Sure, it is entirely arbitrary, and you can refocus at any time, but there is something about the newness of a brand-new year (a new decade!) that makes it seem just right. The new year also marks the first anniversary of the TryTank, so an even better time to look back, redirect, and go forward!

For those who like numbers, in our first year, we undertook 42 experiments, working with 63 congregations in 22 states. I traveled 100,811 miles all over the place (according to American Airlines, that's 3.5 times around the world and 211 hours in the sky).

And what have we learned so far? I think the most important learning is that there are many (many!) hardworking members of congregations who are already doing innovative work. (Here's looking at you!) TryTank has allowed many to find others who are like them and, in some cases, giving them the courage to try new things even if that new thing might fail.

We have learned that non-Spanish speaking congregations can launch Latino ministry. We have learned that people like the assistance a smart speaker provides in their prayer devotions. We gleaned insights into the habits of those whose churches are growing. And we learned that yes, Facebook marketing works to get people into a church, but that it's best to outsource that to an expert in that field, especially since it's always changing and very affordable to do so. 

We also learned that while people may be finding a community in group fitness, they already have a chosen community and don't need an alternative. And that some ideas don't gain traction, and that it's ok to let them go. (Seven experiments met this fate.)

So, what's new for the second year? We have 30 experiments still active. (All of that development work will finally bear fruit!) Also, we are entering the second phase of some experiments. We are also going to explore more deeply how far we can take design thinking to impact our work. And, of course, we'll develop new experiments based on what we're learning and hearing from you.

Thanks for being a part of this journey. Especially to the many of you who chime in with ideas and prompts. Your wisdom matters.  ​

By now, you have probably heard of the big Episcopal gathering taking place this January in Atlanta. While at first I liked that the meeting was dubbed, "Episcapalooza," I have to admit that I love the actual name: Rooted in Jesus. In all that we do, we should always strive to be "Rooted in Jesus." Being rooted is particularly essential for those who work in the church. In all that we do, no matter how holy or how mundane it really should be all about Jesus. 
And so I was delighted that one of our experiments (the "Ideas Festival") would merge into the conference. 

We are happy that TryTank will be presenting a total of four workshops at the VTS stage. They are:

1. Innovation Talks: Four current innovators in the church will give 18-minute presentations of their work and learnings.
2. Innovation UK: the team from St. Martin in the Fields in London will talk about how they completely remade their congregation (by the way, 75% of their income is from social ventures!).
3. Where we are: An update on TryTank and a deep dive into the learnings we have gained from the Listening Project experiment.  
4. Pitch Tank: from an incredibly simple application submitted on our website, a panel will consider seven ideas and decide which become experiments. (See below for more on this.)

The Lifelong Learning team from VTS will also be presenting workshops at the VTS stage on formation and evangelism.

On Thursday night, January 23, TryTank will be hosting a gathering for innovators in the church. It'll be an opportunity to network and have some fun, but we'll also have design questions to spur new ideas for experiments.  (This is a private reception by invitation only. To attend, you can submit an idea for Pitch Tank or join the HeartEdge USA network. Or just hit reply to this email and tell us why you think you want to be there!)

If you haven't already, be sure to register for Rooted in Jesus. Put your thinking cap on and give us your best ideas for experiments in the Pitch Tank. Keep up with all we're doing at the conference by visiting us at www.VTSatRooted.com. And be sure to say hello if you're there.

The other day I read a great article from The New York Times about hobbies. The report covered how to find a hobby. It defined a hobby "as any enjoyable leisure activity that we engage in voluntarily and consistently when we are free from the demands of work or other responsibilities."  Up until then, I thought I did not have a hobby. But now, knowing that definition, it turns out I do.

For as long as I can remember, going back to my teens, I have loved taking deep dives. I'd be reading something or watching the news and something would call my attention that I'd then go and learn about. In many cases, I'd even create some sort of business or enterprise plan for a new iteration of the thing. And I really enjoy doing that. So, amazingly, it turns out that researching is my hobby.

Earlier this year, I had a fascinating conversation with some MIT folk about Human-centered Design (HCD). Wikipedia describes HCD as "an approach to problem solving that develops solutions to problems by involving the human perspective in all steps of the problem-solving process." HCD really interested me. I have been researching it ever since. Specifically, I've been thinking about how HCD might inform the work of TryTank. The TryTank framework has three steps: research, ideate, execute. Even though the structure was created before I started the deep dive with HCD, those of you familiar with HCD will recognize similarities. 

Slowly, I've have been adding more and more research into the experiment idea process. And the more I do this work, the more I realize HCD can really help us discern where the Spirit is leading us. Think about it, a church is really all about relationships. Doesn't it make sense that those very human relationships would play into church innovation?

What this means is that I will be doing more research, both qualitative and quantitative. More interviews with people. More focus groups. More observing how people experience church and how that might change for the better. So, if you're partnering with us on an experiment, don't be surprised if I ask to visit. Researching with you is part of the work!

In a way, doing this research is an experiment itself. Might us doing the work this way lead to better trials that have a more profound impact? We're going to find out. 

This is still very exciting work. And I'm glad you're with us on the way.
​

As we do experiments, we are always looking for ways to measure our outcomes. One of the neat ways we have found to measure (and one which might have more significant implications in our Church) is the Net Promoter Score or NPS.

To find out a score, we ask our participants a simple question: On a scale of zero to 10, with 10 being highest, what's the likelihood that you would recommend (the experiment or ministry goes here) to a friend or colleague?

The grade given, on a scale of one to 10, falls into one of three groups. If a person gives a score of nine or a 10, they are promoters. If they score the work as a seven or an eight, they are passives. You don't know if they are leaning toward loving it, leaving it, or they don't care. And, a score of a six or lower means they are a detractor. To determine the NPS score, we take the percentage of promoters (9s and 10s) and subtract the percentage of detractors (6s and lower). That's the NPS.

We recently asked this question to our Alexa skill experiment users. Fifty-eight people responded to our quick survey, with mostly positive feedback. In the end, our score was 81. In and of itself that's impressive. But then we realized that we had a way of proving it.

We launched the Alexa Skill in February. From the launch to the end of June, we had 561 skill activations. During the 30 day survey period, we had 381 new people activate the Alexa skill. Since we were not doing any advertising or marketing for the skill during that time, the only way we could have gained new people was, you guessed it, from current users "promoting" the skill to their friends and family.

All of a sudden, that 81 NPS is much more real.

This got me thinking, since the best method to evangelize is for people to invite their friends and family, what might it look like if churches started to measure their NPS? Could it be as simple as adding the question to the weekly church email? Or even doing a dedicated monthly email just asking that simple, 10-second question:

On a scale of zero to 10, with 10 being highest, what's the likelihood that you would recommend "St. John's" to a friend or colleague?

In the business world, the NPS is about driving improvements. So, why not in churches? You could ask those who give a score of 8 or below: "What would it take to raise our score just by one point?" And it also is building and deepening the relationship with those who respond. 

As a side benefit, asking the question plants the seed that it would be nice if people recommended your church to their friends and family. You are planting the seed for them to become -- gasp -- evangelists!

​Let me know what you think.

June 11, 2019 

Friends,

Ah, the summer days. An opportunity to slow down and catch one's breath. To go fishing in the afternoons. To just...chill. For others maybe, because we have a ton of work!

But we also have life and work balance. Which is why during these months the newsletter is coming out every three weeks. And why I have some vacation time coming up. But worry not, we also have some interesting stuff going on.

Spin Church experiment closes
If we judge something a success or a failure only by the prescribed outcome we were seeking at the start, then I think this was one that we tried and it simply did not work. We know … 

• That 26,799 people saw the Facebook ads,
• Those people are 86% women and 14% men,
• They saw those ads a total of 160,671 times,
• And that 1,176 of those people took action from those ads.
• That’s a click-through rate of 1.40 which is more than 3x the Facebook benchmark for “well-performing” campaigns.
• However, only 9 people signed up to attend Spin Church over the campaign, and
• None went to the class.

My thinking is that people’s curiosity is piqued when they saw the Spin Church ad and they are curious. So they clicked-through and went to the website. And nine folks were brave enough to sign up. But when it came down to it, they didn’t go. Not half didn’t go...a full 100% didn’t go! 
 
I think what we found here is that those who are getting their spirituality from fitness are going to keep getting that spirituality from THE WAY THEY CURRENTLY DO  and something new is just not of interest. (So maybe having a Christian spin studio where the Christian message is just part of the DNA of every class might work.) For those to whom this was a “curiosity” thing, it just wasn’t of enough value in the end.
 
We could iterate and try to save something from this, but I don’t know that we have a reason to do so. Even if we were able to get people to actually go to a class, my guess is that they would simply go for a few and then stop.  
 
So, I think that in the end, it was a “cool” idea but there was no there, there. But there is a lesson here: engage potential users in the development cycle. And you can bet that this will be a way we do more things going forward. 

As always, stay tuned! 

With gratitude, 
Fr. Lorenzo

Father Lorenzo and Deacon Chris Cassels leading the Eucharistic prayer at SpincChurch in Newport, RI on May 11, 2019. ​

Friends,

Greetings from New York City! I am here for some General Theological Seminary events and several meetings this week. This past weekend I had the privilege of being present at SpinChurch in Newport, RI and of preaching to the great people of the partner congregation there, Emmanuel Episcopal Church. 

About the SpinChurch experiment, the devil, as they say, is in the details. The experiment is working pretty much as we planned it. But although our advertising on Facebook got us 15,300 views and we can confirm that 325 went to our landing page, none of those people came to the class. (Those who were there are mostly friends of the partner church.) So what gives?

A little further exploration showed the problem was that once we captured the attention and got people to the page, we then did not lead people to register. (We had no way for people to register there. It required a few more steps that were complicated, at best.) And so, we got to work on that. And now when people follow the ads, it will be easier to know what SpinChurch is and how to participate. 

It's a little detail that we didn't think through because we ourselves did not have to register each week. But a small detail did not allow any of the 325 people who took the effort to come and learn more to join us. Learn, adjust, try again. ​